How This Bizarre Season Redefined the Typical Coach of the Year Formula.

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the greatest shock.

But the latest field is fundamentally unique. The group of candidates is remarkably strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans rising together. In an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's sustained performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a creative passing attack that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still