Escalating Rhetorical Battle Among Ethiopian Government and Eritrean Government Triggers Concerns of Conflict

Growing apprehensions have emerged regarding the possibility of military engagement between Horn of Africa countries, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as hostile language has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a fierce verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in 2023 that his country's access to the sea was an vital issue, statements that Eritrean authorities ignored.

Relations between the neighboring nations have regularly been difficult. After a long-standing struggle for freedom, Eritrea, which has a long maritime frontage, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, rendering it without sea access.

In 1998, a territorial conflict broke out in which over a hundred thousand people were killed.

Latest Statements from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed ownership of Eritrean maritime facility of Assab – some 60 km from the border - and implied the desire to take it by force.

In early September, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of being denied passage to the sea as a due to Eritrean independence would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Statements

Despite continuous threats from Ethiopia, Eritrea's response has been restricted to concise remarks on X from Communications Head the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry describing it as "risky" and a "harmful plan" of "expansionism" – a policy of retaking previous domains.

The information ministry alerted on 16 September that attempts to validate "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for the Ethiopian government and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Movements on the Ground

There have been little evidence of large-scale army activities in the border areas between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, government media has broadcast training completions of numerous trainees at multiple army bases.

The head of staff section of the defense force, General Hachalu, recently said in an discussion that the defense forces was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our enemies".

Previous Roots of the Dispute

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was governed by Italian rulers.

After World War II, it was then managed by the British administration before turning into a associated territory of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor terminated this agreement and the region became totally absorbed into Ethiopia.

A extended armed struggle followed, finishing with military reversal in the early 1990s. Sovereignty was then confirmed by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

For a few years in the 1990s, there were good relations between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they fell out over the specific demarcation of their shared boundary, causing war in 1998.

Though this finished in a peace deal in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the two nations remained at odds.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two agreed to a declaration that the war was finished – a action that earned Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then allies in the country's recent internal conflict in Tigray.

Yet ties have later worsened again.