China has sent its maritime law enforcement through the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as Beijing ramps up tensions following the Japan's leader's remarks regarding Taiwan.
On Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also asserted as territory by Beijing.
“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.
China and Japan have consistently clashed around the islands but the latest activity occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Japan.
That sparked an angry response from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.
China claims the island as its own territory and plans to incorporate it under what it describes as “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens overwhelmingly reject the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if necessary.
An attack or invasion by China would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Japan, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.
In Taiwan, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one “official” ship, which was probably the coast guard, operating around the island over the previous day.
Maps provided by the ministry showed up to multiple UAVs operating near the island and the Japan's territory off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone generally has been low in recent weeks.
Earlier this weekend, the ministry said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It added the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.
Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in the Japanese city triggering an official complaint from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.
China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first occasion since 2023, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.
On Friday, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.
Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.
In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.
While the advice does not amount to a ban, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.
Late on Saturday, a official press commentary charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.
“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the US, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”
The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.
Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its rhetoric towards Taiwan.
Lena Visser is techjournalist met focus op startups en digitale transformatie in Eindhoven.