A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
